ESTRO 2024 - Abstract Book

S2691

Interdisciplinary - Education in radiation therapy

ESTRO 2024

The current number of oncologists in Jordan: N=110 medical/ hematology/pediatric oncologists (84 males, 26 females; 9.8 per 1 million population), N=64 radiation oncologists (50 males, 14 females; 5.7 per 1 million population) and 36 surgical oncologists (34 males, 2 females; 3.2 per 1 million population) with a significant male preponderance. Comparatively, developed countries like USA had 4.2 times the size of the Jordanian oncology workforce per 1 million population (57.4 medical, 17.5 radiation and 4.2 surgical oncologists per 1 million population) and UK had 2.1 times the size of the Jordanian oncology workforce per 1 million population (20.9 clinical, 12.8 medical and 6.1 surgical oncologists per 1 million population). The oncology workforce in Jordan was less than one neighboring country (Saudi Arabia which has 1.5 times the size of the Jordanian oncology workforce per 1 million population (13.9 medical, 9.2 radiation and 3.6 surgical oncologists per 1 million population) but more than other countries such as Iraq and Syria (Figure 1). The number of enrolled medical students (years 1-6) in Jordan was N=20,886 (study start year: 2017-2022) with students expected to graduate in 2023-2028. We received 1,900 responses from medical students for the cross-sectional electronic questionnaire. Interest in pursuing oncological specialties among Jordanian medical students is low with only 31 students (0.016%; with only N=4 in clinical years 4-6) reporting an interest in any of the oncology specialties. However, many graduates emigrate to other countries after completion of medication school (N=1,490 of 1,900 surveyed (78.4%)) expressed a plan to emigrate after graduation. Taken together with the number of medical graduates from abroad who return to Jordan, an average of 2,000 physicians have registered annually in the Jordan Medical Association over the past 5 years. Owing to a recently introduced policy change, this number is expected to drop significantly due to the decrease in the number of seats in medical schools by 70% in 2023 and in the future. Based on GlobeCan data, the incidence of new cancer cases in Jordan is expected to rise from 11,500 cases per year in 2020 to 21,000 cases in 2040 (82.6% increase). Based on the results of the questionnaire, the number of newly registered physicians annually and the expected drop in the number of medical graduates due to the policy change, it is estimated that the total number of oncology specialists will increase by N=73 (34.8%) and N=90 (42.9%) over the next in 2030 and 2040, respectively (N of retirees not taken into account). Therefore, the supply of oncology specialists will not keep up with the increasing demand due to the rise of cancer cases till the year 2040.

Conclusion:

The oncology specialist workforce in Jordan, while falling short in comparison to developed nations, is comparable with neighboring countries. Crucially, the supply of oncology specialists will not keep up with the increasing demand due to the rise of cancer cases till the year 2040. Our data could be used to guide healthcare policy interventions on oncology human resources in Jordan to improve cancer care.