ESTRO 2023 - Abstract Book

S305

Sunday 14 May 2023

ESTRO 2023

Medical Center Utrecht, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care , Utrecht, The Netherlands; 7 Cochrane Netherlands, Utrecht University, University Medical Center Utrecht, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht, The Netherlands Purpose or Objective The aim of this Cochrane review was to identify, describe and appraise NTCP-models and their quality and predictive performance in patients with HNC. Materials and Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, and registries of ongoing trials from conception to March 2021. Articles reporting on the development and external validation of NTCP models were included to predict any type of radiation-induced side effects. We included all study designs, except for non-nested case-control studies. Data was extracted using CHARM and applicability concern and risk of bias (ROB) were assessed using the PROBAST tool. Results A total of 10,119 unique potentially relevant articles and 55 ongoing trials were identified. Of those, 9,419 were excluded based on title and abstract screening, leaving 755 articles for full text screening. During full text screening, 641 articles were excluded. From the 114 remaining articles, data were extracted (Fig 1).

Fig 1. Study flow diagram Among 333 developed models from 96 articles, 148 models aimed to predict toxicities related to salivary gland function (44%), followed by swallowing-related toxicities (18%), brain and nerve toxicities (7%) and hypothyroidism (6%). Calibration and discrimination of the apparent model were reported for 68 (20%) and 109 (33%) models, respectively. The c-statistics ranged between 0.60 and 0.98. Only 48 (14%) models from 5 articles were judged as low ROB and low concerns for applicability (Fig 2).